
I really don’t like the concept of ‘swing’ versus ‘safe’ seats in elections. I mean, I know it describes a political reality; that there are some riding’s that are more easily predicted then others. If they aren’t easy to predict and citizens votes shift from election to election, it make sense that politicians put more effort into those riding’s because their efforts are more likely to pay off with voters who are predisposed to changing their vote. Conversely, if it is pretty clear that the majority of voters in a riding very consistently vote for the incumbents party… then the chances of changing their vote is much lower.
But I don’t like it. More specifically, I don’t like ‘safe’ riding’s. I don’t think they are good for the citizens of those riding’s and I don’t think they are good for democracy in general. They just increase our already eroding voter turnout and engagement.
To me, elections are about more then just voting. They are an opportunity to have a conversation as a country about what matters to us and what are priorities are. My feeling is that those in swing riding’s engage more in that conversation then do those in safe riding’s.
I live in Calgary, Alberta. Every seat in Alberta, with the exception of one in Edmonton (Edmonton-Strathcona) is considered a ‘safe’ Conservative seat. Albertans (and more specific Calgarians) have been voting Conservative (before them Canadian Alliance and before that Reform) for a long long time. In fact, I would claim that most of Calgary’s riding’s are the very definition of ‘safe’ seats.
What this means to me, as a voter in one of these ‘safe’ riding’s, is that no one is trying to get my vote. So far in the this election I have seen a few signs around the neighbour hood (which all seemed to go up this week) and had one flyer dropped off. I have not seen or heard from a single candidate. One one is showing up at any events I have heard of (which means they might be going to events but not doing a good job at getting the word out about when and where) and no one is knocking on doors. If I want to know about each candidate- I need to seek the information out.
Every one is talking about the use of social media in this election as a took to engage voters. In terms of social media, Liberal Jennifer Pollock seems to be the most active (http://twitter.com/#!/jcpollock). Green party candidate William Hamilton is also using social media (http://twitter.com/#!/beltliner403). But neither had been engaging enough for me to see anything from them via my social network; again, I looked them up. Lee Richardson is not on twitter at all and has a very ugly website. The NDP candidate was replaced last minute and is from Edmonton. She has missed at least one debate and her online presence is nil as far as I can tell. So while 2 of the candidates are trying to use social media to engage, the other 2 are not at all.
Essentially, the Conservatives are taking votes for granted and none of the other candidates seem to be bothering to put up a good fight. And, as a result, Calgary’s voters are likely to not turn up at the polls in any great numbers.
In 2008, Alberta’s voter turnout was one of the worst in the country; 52.9%. By contrast, PEI had a voter turnout of 69.5% This election, about the same is expected.
I will be voting in Calgary Centre. And according to a website called “Project Democracy” there are about 88000 voters in this riding. Which means last election about 46552 people are expected to vote in this riding, if the same voter turnout numbers hold. Project Democracy estimates that 46900 people with vote and 21343 of those votes will be going to the Conservatives. *
But what would happen if Calgary Centre had the voter turnout of PEI? All of a sudden, there would be 14608 voters up for grabs. If you add those 14608 votes to the next closest rival to the Conservatives (the Liberals) they could win the seat by 4400 votes.
Now, obviously, not all ‘extra’ voter turnout is going to go to one party. But, if there was a good rival to the Conservative in the riding, who was engaging and convincing voters to vote for them, they could also steal votes from the other ‘left of centre’ parties in the riding. When you look at all the left of centre votes plus all the people that don’t vote, any of the 3 opposing parties could potentially win with a good campaign.
I am trying to make the point that no seat is 100% safe. Candidates in every riding should be getting out there and engaging with people to try and win our votes. Tell me why you want me to vote for me. ASK ME FOR MY VOTE. That should be Politics 101. Instead, I feel like the incumbents all over Alberta are taking our votes for granted. From Rob Anders in Calgary North who snubs debates and isn’t even supported by his riding association to Lee Richardson who doesn’t even bother to try and engage online.
I just don’t buy Conservative MP Lee Richardson’s claim that Calgarians are content with what they see happening in Ottawa. According to the Calgary Beacon, “He says voters are telling him on the doorstep that they’re happy with the Conservative government of Stephen Harper. Voters aren’t apathetic, just content, he said. They tell him the Stephen Harper government is doing a good job and they’re confident Calgary will continue to elect Conservative MPs.” Regardless of if I buy it or not, I think we need to show up at the polls and have our say, safe riding or not.
I know this may all seem unrealistic. Reality is that voter turnout here is likely not to jump to that of PEI’s. But consider the huge change in voter turnout in our Civic Election last fall. “Preliminary 2010 voter turn-out is 53.24% of eligible voters compared to 32.9 % in the 2007 General Election.”
That voter turnout happened because a candidate, Nenshi, actually engaged in a real conversation with Calgarians. When the civic election started, Nenshi was way behind the front runners in the polls. (I can’t find a stat for this, but just trust me, I remember). However, over the course of the election race he climbed up the polls on account of his engagement with voters, particularly young voters. Nenshi’s platform is not one that Calgarians have tended to vote for, but they did.
So my point is this: anyone can win any riding with the right ideas and the right campaign. And we, as voters, have to demand more from our politicians and stop rewarding those who don’t engage.
*Project Democracy updates its numbers every Monday, which means my numbers could be off by the time you read this. I based this information on the numbers projected on their site on Sunday April 24th.
Photo by Cliff1066 via Flickr Creative Commons